Title: An assessment of the effects of climate change on annual streamflow in rivers in Western Turkey

Authors: Semih Kale; Olcay Hisar; Adem Yavuz Sönmez; Fatih Mutlu; Walter Leal Filho

Addresses: Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Terzioglu Campus, 17020, Canakkale, Turkey ' Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Terzioglu Campus, 17020, Canakkale, Turkey ' Faculty of Fisheries, Kastamonu University, 37000, Kastamonu, Turkey ' Turkish State Meteorological Service, General Directorate of Meteorology, Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, 06120, Ankara, Turkey ' Centre for International Business and Sustainability LMBS, London Metropolitan University, Holloway Road, London N7 8DB, UK

Abstract: Global warming and its impacts are known to cause serious problems in sustainability of natural resources. In this study, change-point analysis and trend analysis were applied to climatic (temperature, precipitation, evaporation) and streamflow data for Tuzla, Gediz and Büyük Menderes rivers. Box-Jenkins technique and ARIMA model were used for trend analysis. Results showed that there were decreases in streamflow of all rivers. The paper suggests that climate change effects on streamflow could be changeable and that many factors (anthropogenic effects, geographical location, agricultural activities) should be considered. Management strategies specified regionally are required to mitigate the potential climate change effects.

Keywords: climate change; streamflow; trend analysis; change-point analysis; Turkey.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.092901

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.15 No.2, pp.190 - 211

Received: 31 Mar 2016
Accepted: 16 Apr 2017
Published online: 02 Jul 2018 *

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