Title: Risk analysis of the European Union 2030 greenhouse gas emission target compliance

Authors: Marko D. Ćirović

Addresses: Faculty of Organizational Science, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilića 154, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract: As the central objective of the Europe 2030 strategy, member countries of the European Union (EU) are striving to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40% compared to 1990 levels. This paper examines the ability of EU countries to reach this goal in the mentioned time-frame. Although the EU 2020 target of 20% reduction has already been achieved by EU28 in total (GHG emissions are 19.8% lower than 1990 level, they have not been achieved by all the member states individually, but rather by the higher achievements than targeted by the higher performing countries. Risk analysis has been done in order to evaluate and rank countries by their current and projected progress towards targeted outcomes. The approach that was used is integrated fuzzy AHP and failure mode and effect analysis (FAHP FMEA). Each country's potential inability to fulfil marked greenhouse gas emissions was considered as a FMEA failure effect.

Keywords: environmental risk assessment; EU 2030; risk analysis; fuzzy; FAHP; failure mode and effect analysis; FMEA.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.094311

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.16 No.1, pp.64 - 85

Received: 31 Jan 2017
Accepted: 14 Oct 2017
Published online: 29 Aug 2018 *

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