Title: Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the Carpathian Basin comparing different definitions

Authors: Júlia Göndöcs; Breuer Hajnalka; Rita Pongrácz; Judit Bartholy

Addresses: Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, H-1117 Budapest, Pázmány, Péter sétány 1/A, Hungary ' Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, H-1117 Budapest, Pázmány, Péter sétány 1/A, Hungary ' Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, H-1117 Budapest, Pázmány, Péter sétány 1/A, Hungary; Faculty of Science, Excellence Center, Eötvös Loránd University, H-2462 Martonvásár, Brunszvik u.2., Hungary ' Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, H-1117 Budapest, Pázmány, Péter sétány 1/A, Hungary; Faculty of Science, Excellence Center, Eötvös Loránd University, H-2462 Martonvásár, Brunszvik u.2., Hungary

Abstract: Heat waves (HWs) associated with climate change and increased near-surface air temperature can be considered as a climatic hazard for people and the environment. This study evaluates six HW detecting methods and the estimated HW characteristics (duration, frequency and intensity) from observational (CarpatClim database) and modelled (RegCM simulations with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) datasets. The RegCM model results show a considerable future increase (by 2016-2045; 2061-2090) in HW days compared to the reference period (1971-2000). In case of RCP4.5, HW days become 3-6 times more frequent, while the increase is 5-9 fold for RCP8.5 by the end of the century. As a consequence of climate change, HW durations are also projected to become 1-2 (3-4) days longer on average for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the Carpathian Basin.

Keywords: heat wave definition; climate change; regional climate model; temperature; cloudiness; bias correction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.094552

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.16 No.2, pp.119 - 135

Received: 15 Sep 2017
Accepted: 07 Dec 2017
Published online: 06 Sep 2018 *

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