Title: Applying system dynamics simulation to proactively identify and address unintended consequences

Authors: Alan A. Stephens; J. Brian Atwater

Addresses: Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University, 3565 Old Main Hill Logan, Utah 84322-3565, USA ' School of Business, Indiana University Southeast, 4201 Grant Line Road, New Albany, IN 47150-6405, USA

Abstract: This paper outlines how managers or policy makers can use system dynamics tools to clarify their thinking in order to better identify and address the unintended consequences created by their change efforts. Prominent systems thinkers have maintained that to truly understand a complex system you have to observe how the parts of the system interact. System dynamics tools allow people to create and observe these interactions in a condensed time frame, which in turn allows them to learn from the model and then apply these insights to reality. The key stumbling block has always been the uncertainty that a model accurately reflects reality. In this paper we show that insights can be gained simply by building the model. Once our thinking becomes visible to others we can refine and improve our models using group processes.

Keywords: systems theory; unintended consequences; simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLC.2019.097167

International Journal of Learning and Change, 2019 Vol.11 No.1, pp.1 - 17

Received: 21 Dec 2016
Accepted: 03 Apr 2018
Published online: 02 Jan 2019 *

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