Title: How might Shandong achieve the 2030 CO₂ emissions target? A system dynamics analysis from the perspective of energy supply-side structural reform in China

Authors: Yingying Ma; Zaixu Zhang; Feifei Zhang; Zhiyang Liu

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, China; Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Department, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, USA ' School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), No. 66, Changjiang West Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao, 266580, China ' School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), No. 66, Changjiang West Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao, 266580, China ' School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), No. 66, Changjiang West Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao, 266580, China

Abstract: This paper takes Shandong Province as an example to forecast the CO₂ emission from 2017 to 2030 by system dynamics under four designed scenarios. The results indicate that despite the coal consumption, CO₂ emission and the CO₂ emission intensity of low intensity scenario and medium intensity scenario both decrease compared to the results of current scenario. However, neither the coal consumption peak year nor the CO₂ emission peak year is before 2030. We find that with the high intensity scenario, the CO₂ emission would peak on 2027 and the coal consumption would peak on 2021. Besides, the CO₂ emission intensity of 2030 is reduce by almost 80% of 2005 level. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are concluded based on the simulations results.

Keywords: energy supply-side structural reform; CO₂ emissions reduction; energy consumption; economic growth; system dynamics model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2019.099801

International Journal of Global Warming, 2019 Vol.17 No.4, pp.357 - 372

Received: 08 Jun 2018
Accepted: 26 Feb 2019
Published online: 22 May 2019 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article