Foundation of Event-Driven Management of Quality of Economics, The State and Human Life
Monograph


Introduction

The phenomenon of the complexity of economics, in our opinion, is not fully understood scientifically and has not been satisfactorily resolved in the applied sense. The history of the emergence and development of economic theory goes back hundreds of years. Hundreds of books and dozens of textbooks have been written, various scientific schools have been created. However, the successes in the field of economics management are incomparably more modest.

Realizing the impossibility of comprehensive coverage of the phenomenon of economic complexity, the author narrowed his area of interest only to questions of structural complexity. The discipline of managing the quality of economics is closely related to mathematics, since mathematics is the means by which, in most cases, only the correct formulation of problems is possible.

The logical-probabilistic calculus and artificial intelligence have been chosen as the intellectual core of scientific research on quality management. However, there are also difficulties on the way to actively master this core. The main one is the need to familiarize oneself with the methods of the algebra of the logic of proposition-events.

The author hopes to fill the gap in this area of knowledge not only through a certain systematization of the material, but also with the help of a large number of examples, realizing that examples sometimes teach more and faster than dry theory.

The paper deals with event-driven management of the quality of human life, economics and the state, and structurally complex systems, objects and processes. The term 'quality criterion' is used in the largest number of problems in economics. It sometimes replaces 'safety criterion' and 'efficiency criterion', which are calculated on the same mathematical basis.

The event-driven approach allows us to model, analyze and manage the quality of systems and processes, taking into account the infrastructure and the quality of human life, to solve new effective problems in the economics.

Event-driven management of systems and processes is carried out in the state space. Time is taken into account indirectly in the change in probabilities of events according to the results of monitoring the indicators of systems and processes and the formulation of the corresponding Boolean event-propositions.

The development of event-driven management of the quality of human life, economics and the state was most influenced by the results of the following directions in science.

  • Assessment of reliability in technology: Since the beginning of the 1970s, in Russia the logical-probabilistic (LP) theory of risk was developed (Ryabinin, 2007; Mozhaev and Gromov, 2000) to assess reliability. In these works, an event for each element of the system could have only states good/bad, not refusal/refusal (1/0) with probabilities p and (1 - p) by analogy with evaluating the truth of Boolean propositions. Vivid examples of this direction are models and studies of the reliability of the power supply system of a nuclear submarine and the functioning of a nuclear power plant.
  • Assessment of quality assessment in economics: Since the beginning of the 1990s, The World Trade Organization (WTO) has introduced the concept of invalidity to assess the quality of systems, processes and products. Invalidity of a system indicator is a deviation of its value from a given or permissible one. An economic system can have not two, but many states. Invalidation of a system is an event in which it can have one of the invalid states and perform its functions with a loss of quality.
  • The introduction of a measure for assessing the invalidity of indicators as the likelihood of invalid events and the creation of a new scientific direction: Event-driven management of the quality of human life, economics and the state.
  • Synthesis of the probability of an event based on non-numerical, incomplete and inaccurate expert information (Hovanov, 2007): An expert cannot give an accurate estimate of the likelihood of one event. He will do this more objectively if he evaluates three or four alternative hypotheses and if the assessments of different experts are carefully combined.

The relationship between economics and the state was studied by outstanding scientists - Nobel Prize winners Buchanan (1997) and Heckman (2002).

This book proposes a methodology for event-driven management of the quality of human life, economics and the state based on the algebra of logic, LP calculus and artificial intelligence. Events are introduced into the event-driven management model, which can be controlled by changing their probabilities. Event-driven management is carried out in the following sequence:

  • building a scenario for event-driven management of the system
  • construction of structural, logical and probabilistic models of the quality of the system
  • assessment of probabilities of invalidity of system indicators
  • quantitative assessment of the system quality criterion and the contributions of the system indicators to the quality criterion
  • making a decision on the distribution of funds to reduce probabilities of invalidity of the most significant indicators of the system.

Since the number of significant indicators of the system usually does not exceed two dozen and resources for management are limited, there are no difficulties in allocating resources for improving quality. The task of achieving the absolute quality of the system is not posed precisely because of the limited resources.

The term 'management' is translated into English not as 'control', but as management, since in management decisions are made by a person, that is, management is not automated.

The event-driven management of real systems and processes is considered. Management components are management subjects (who solves the problem), management objects (what tasks are being solved) and infrastructure.

In event control, arithmetic and logical calculations of great complexity are performed, and therefore it is imperative to use special software. Event-driven management is applicable for any logical complexity of the system.

Here is some text from Solozhentsev (2018): "it's time to return to the basics of logic and arithmetic (sets) in order to solve difficult problems." Around the end of the 19th century, in mathematics, a non-constructive set-theoretic direction arose, which was significantly developed in the works of Weerstrass, Dedekind and Cantor. The construction of set theory began, which claimed to be the foundation of all mathematics. However, at the beginning of the twentieth century, in the theory of sets, the so-called antinomies, contradictions with the use of the concept of 'infinity' were discovered. In applications to economics, these contradictions are absent. There are a large number of problems in economics and government that are successfully solved on the basis of set theory, logic and discrete mathematics.

In economic science, until now, such a fundamental concept as 'event' has not been used in management. In technology, the transition from the calculus of 'statements' by George Boole to the calculus of 'events' took about 150 years thanks to the work of prominent Russian scientists: P.S. Poretsky proposed in 1886 a solution to the general problem of the theory of probability using mathematical logic (Poretsky, 1887). S.N. Bernstein (1917) extended the axiomatics of Boole's logic to the axiomatics of events, A.N. Kolmogorov (1929) proposed axioms for probability as a possible measure, V.I. Glivenko (1939) generalized the axiomatics of logic, events, probabilities and sets. I.A. Ryabinin proposed axiomatics and quantitative analysis of the reliability of technical systems. The concept of 'event' allows you to use the mathematical theory of LP calculus and the algebra of logic. On the basis of invalidity events, event management of the quality of life of a person, an economy and the state was created, which is, in essence, a method of artificial intelligence.

The existing management methods are unable to improve the efficiency of economics. For example, in Russia, managers, security officials and the education system are not interested in this, and economic and academic science is not able to do this. The fate of Russia depends on the emergence of new knowledge and the solution of new problems in managing the quality of human life, economics and the state (Solozhentsev, 2018). Deficiencies in the management of economics and the state are inherent not only in Russia but in all countries.

To formulate a new scientific direction, a transition to a qualitatively new level of worldview and the introduction of new knowledge and new tasks for managing the quality of human life, economics and the state were required. Event-driven management of the quality of economics and the state 'from above' and 'from below' was proposed using artificial intelligence.

Event-driven management is a method of artificial intelligence and is aimed at increasing the efficiency of economics and the state. Event-driven management in economics and the state is a new scientific direction in economics and economic science. It is, in essence, a method of artificial intelligence using the algebra of logic and LP calculus.

In the framework of event-driven management, the management of the quality of human life is considered for the first time. The quality of human life is presented in the form of a logical addition of the quality of the processes of life. Managing the quality of human life processes (treatment, training, and decision-making) and the construction of appropriate models is carried out with the participation of the persons themselves. These models are used for quantitative analysis and results for bottom-up management of systems. Bottom-up management is also feedback from top management. Several applications for managing the quality of human life are described for solving real-life problems.

This book includes a foreword, an introduction, five chapters, a conclusion, a bibliography and a subject index.

  • This introduction sets out the essence and scientific novelty of event-driven management of the quality of human life, economics and the state as a method of artificial intelligence.
  • Chapter 1: 'State of management of economics and the state', analyzes the state of economics, theories of economics management and the real ephemeral management of economics and the state. A way out of the critical situation is proposed.
  • Chapter 2: 'Event-driven management of quality as a method of artificial intelligence', outlines the content of event-driven management as a method of artificial intelligence, defines the invalidity of the system indicator, and proposes a measure for assessing its probability. The events and probabilities in the management of the quality of economics and the state are considered. A method for synthesizing the probability of an event based on expert information is presented.
  • Chapter 3: 'Management of the quality of economics and the state 'from above'', introduces new criteria, objects of management and new knowledge. New types of logical-probabilistic risk models have been introduced. New tasks are presented for managing the quality of economics and the state on the basis of LP-risk models. Examples of systems management 'from above' are considered in detail.
  • Chapter 4: 'Event-driven management of quality of human life', contains the formulation of the task of managing the quality of human life. Scenarios, structural, logical and probabilistic models of quality management of human treatment processes, student education, decisions of ministers, the life of a scientist, and the life of an entrepreneur are considered. The applications for managing the quality of human life are presented. The place digital economics in managing the quality of human life is investigated. The role of public opinion in the implementation of quality management of the economics and the state 'from below' is described.
  • Chapter 5: 'Providing event-driven management of economics and the state 'from above' and 'from below'', discusses special software Arbiter and Expa. Conclusions are made about the importance of public opinion in the management of economics and the state 'from below'. The content of the course of additional education is given. The main provisions of the LP calculus are stated. The procedures of the technology of LP risk modeling are given. The main aspects of management in the digital economics are outlined. The role of public opinion in the generalization of the results of various processes of the quality of human life of different people and management 'from below' is considered.
  • In the conclusion the main results of the work are presented.

The author briefly and in a structured manner outlines the main provisions of a new scientific direction in economics - the basis of event management - to facilitate their assimilation by economists. Therefore, the volume of the book is on average three times less than the previous books of the author.

The book is addressed to economists and managers involved in managing the quality of human life, the state and economics, students, graduate students and university professors of economic specialties, as well as specialists interested in various applications for assessing the quality of human life, the role of public opinion, the use of artificial intelligence and digital economics.