Global CO₂ emissions mathematical modelling to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change
by Nizar Jaoua
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 21, No. 1, 2020

Abstract: Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement, are explicitly predicted by using a mathematical approach. Optimised models could serve as control tools for the emissions to meet the climate accord. These pathways are selected among an uncountable collection of models designed with short, mid, or long smooth transition to an exponential decline. A common basis to the modelling is the remaining budget of CO₂ emissions, whose estimation is explicitly determined in terms of the climate target. The graphical confrontation with UN climate simulation models; the RCPs and no- and low-overshoot 1.5°C pathways, demonstrates a mitigation ranging from moderate to high, along with a smooth similar pattern which, in the short-term, would overcome a global shortage of no-carbon energy, and in the long-term, will tolerate low emissions that could be brought to nearly zero before 2050, with no need for CO₂ removal from the air.

Online publication date: Fri, 26-Jun-2020

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