BVAR models in short-term prediction of modern central banks: empirical evidence of the euro area Online publication date: Fri, 26-Feb-2021
by Aleksandra Nocoń
International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance (IJMEF), Vol. 14, No. 1, 2021
Abstract: It has been more than a decade since central banks, in the face of the global financial crisis, implemented unconventional initiatives. Monetary authorities' actions have led to a reduction of main interest rates to historically low levels and huge expansion of central banks' balance sheet. So far, they still have not returned to the pre-crisis framework and implemented the normalisation process. Nowadays, there is observed a trend to use econometric models in monetary policy to forecast macroeconomic variables and plan normalising activities. The main aim of the study is empirical verification of BVAR model in short-term predicting, that might be used by the European Central Bank in its normalisation process. The conducted research indicate that the large BVAR model for the Eurozone has a significant predictive value in short-term forecasting. At the same time indicating its considerable precision and accuracy in prediction, with a high degree of objectivity and flexibility.
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