An analysis of Asia-Pacific regional integration: time-varying SVAR approach Online publication date: Wed, 30-Nov-2022
by Essahbi Essaadi; Awatef Ourir
International Journal of Economics and Business Research (IJEBR), Vol. 25, No. 1, 2023
Abstract: Regional economic integration in East and Southeast Asia has reached considerable transformation in a few years. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the integration process, we study whether East and Southeast Asian countries are influenced by specific, regional, or global shocks. The novelty of the paper is that we look after regional integration as an evolutionary process. To detect dynamic changes in the variance decomposition analysis, we apply a time-varying SVAR model. Our main finding is that when we consider the nonlinear aspect of the integration process in East and Southeast Asia, conclusions about its suitability for currency union change completely. TVP-SVAR model is used to revisit the economic integration process in the East and Southeast Asian region. Japan outperforms China and the USA as a regional anchor for most countries in the last dates. The large specific shock brings us to the point that the region is neither a yen nor a yuan nor a dollar block, but is tending towards a yen block.
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