The generalised interval estimations in decision making under uncertainty Online publication date: Wed, 26-Mar-2008
by Nikita Chugunov, Gennady Shepelyov, Michael Sternin
International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (IJTPM), Vol. 8, No. 3, 2008
Abstract: This paper summarises and further extends the theoretical and practical aspects of the Generalised Interval Estimations (GIE) approach in decision making under uncertainty. The oil reservoir evaluation example demonstrates the properties of the GIE approach, which we believe could be important for a wide variety of interdisciplinary problems, including investment project evaluation, technology assessment, and the development of policies and regulations. The GIE structure, being a scenario-based expert knowledge representation, is more analysis-oriented, since it provides flexibility to add/remove/modify scenarios from the expert description of estimated quantity. The practical example on projecting the dynamics of world oil production also illustrates the algorithm that an independent expert could use to develop and analyse new scenarios based on the initial set of projections available from relevant studies and research.
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