Tales of the unexpected Online publication date: Sat, 28-Feb-2015
by David Elms; Colin B. Brown
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (IJRAM), Vol. 15, No. 5/6, 2011
Abstract: There are two strategies for safety. The first is to minimise the likelihood of failure, and the second to achieve resilience and minimise the consequences of failure should it occur. Failure is unexpected by those involved: it comes as a surprise. Surprise relates the probability of an event to the weight we give it or the degree of interest we have in it, which should be interest in whatever it is that causes failure. Many, possibly most, failures stem from the models used by engineers. To better understand models and their potential problems, a taxonomy of models is proposed, and examples of failure are given for different model types. A list of principles is given for good modelling practice which, if followed, would reduce the likelihood of failure and of being surprised. The approach has relevance to engineering education as well as practice.
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (IJRAM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com