Consequence modelling of the population risk exposure resulting from airborne toxic material released from rail cars within Toronto, Ontario
by Steve A. Thompson
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (IJCIS), Vol. 11, No. 3, 2015

Abstract: Rail transportation is commonly used to move toxic-by-inhalation chemicals throughout Canada, passing in close proximity to urban areas. These trains are vulnerable to accidents, sabotage and terrorism, with each scenario resulting in formidable consequences for nearby residents. Modelling of the airborne concentration distribution of chlorine gas released from a railcar in Toronto reveals that in a 'worst case' scenario, approximately 261,590 residents would be expected to experience severely irreversible and life-threatening health effects, including death. An event of this magnitude, stemming from a 10 cm diameter puncture hole in the side of the railcar - accidentally or intentionally caused - would cripple the response capacity of nearby hospitals, and unleash a cascading series of effects. Further, models of anhydrous ammonia and chlorine releases reveal that weather conditions and the incident timing can lead to multiple populations being affected, while the chemical characteristics play an important mitigation role in population risk exposure.

Online publication date: Fri, 02-Oct-2015

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