Model for managing uncertainty in aeronautics projects Online publication date: Thu, 19-Oct-2017
by Darli Rodrigues Vieira; Raimundo Kennedy Vieira; Milena Chang Chain; Alencar Bravo
International Journal of Product Lifecycle Management (IJPLM), Vol. 10, No. 3, 2017
Abstract: The uncertainty in the development of aeronautical projects is ultimately a determinant variable in the failure or success of a project due to the impact that a decision will have on the sequence of other project activities. However, there remains a lack of distinction in the literature between the concepts of uncertainty and error. This ultimately influences the type of tool that is used. In this study, uncertainty is presented as the difference between the knowledge required and the knowledge retained when making a decision. Furthermore, it is only appropriate to refer to uncertainty before decision-making, as once a decision is made, only risk remains. This study aims to propose a model to assist decision-makers engaged in the development of aeronautical projects with activities involving uncertainty. The logical sequence presented allows decision-makers to identify, characterise and estimate uncertainty before making a decision.
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